The vote in the United States could be favourable to Joe Biden

October 15, 2020

The election studies center ANES (American National Election Studies) published the result of a survey (made in april 2020) of 3,087 potential voters in the next presidential elections of the United States. This study revealed the potential transfer of votes from the 2016 to 2020 elections and here are the top-line findings.



In 2020, 41% of the people surveyed have a voting intention oriented to Donald Trump and 43% to Joe Biden.

Regarding the transition of votes, 88% of the people who stated they voted for Trump in 2016 say they will do so again in 2020, while 8% are now planning to vote for Biden and the remaining percentage will not vote or vote for another candidate.

Out of those people who said they voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, 4% are planning to move their vote to Trump, 87% say they will continue to support the Democrats by choosing Biden and the remaining percentage say they will abstain or vote for someone else. And of the percentage of those who said they abstained from voting in 2016, 27% will go with Trump and 33% with Biden in 2020.

Findings like these may indicate that at this snapshot in time Joe Biden has a higher chance of winning by majority vote. However, to be able to make more conclusive statements one would have to analyse distribution of voting intention by states, which is what defines the election of the US president. See more here.

This information was extracted from the ANES (American National Elections Studies) voting intention survey dataset and the data visualization was performed with Datasketch Apps. Remember that you can upload your own information and make your own graphics by registering at 

*Imagen de Tumisu en Pixabay 


Data team

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